GBP/USD deflates to the sub-1.3300 area, USD bulls prevail

GBP/USD remained on the back foot Wednesday, slipping below the 1.3300 level as the Greenback gained further traction. The Dollar’s solid performance was supported by strong US data and fading concerns over a renewed escalation in the US–China trade dispute.

GBP/USD Technical Overview

GBP/USD broke below the ascending regression channel and closed the last four 4-hour candles below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a lack of buyer interest. On the downside, immediate support is located at 1.3260 (static level, 50-period SMA) before 1.3200 and 1.3090 (100-period SMA).

Looking north, resistances could be spotted at 1.3340 (20-period SMA, static level), 1.3400-1.3410 (round level, static level) and 1.3460 (static level).

Fundamental Overview

S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI in the UK slumped to 48.2 in April's flash estimate from 51.5 in March, highlighting a contraction in the private sector's business activity.

Commenting on the survey's findings, "while recent months have been characterised by UK businesses treading water, broadly stagnating since last autumn’s Budget, businesses are reporting more of a struggle to keep their heads above water in April.

"The collapse in confidence and drop in output during April raise red flags as to the near-term economic outlook and add pressure on the Bank of England to reduce interest rates again at its May meeting.

S&P Global will publish preliminary April Manufacturing and Services PMI data for the US later in the day.

In case either of the headline PMIs come in well below 50, the USD could have a difficult time finding demand. In this scenario, GBP/USD could stretch higher with the immediate reaction. On the flip side, a positive surprise in the PMI report could boost the USD and cause the pair to turn south. Investors will also scrutinize the commentary in the report to see whether business activity is being impacted negatively by tariffs. If the publication points to a significant deterioration in the private sector's business outlook, the USD could continue to weaken against its peers.