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Notice of Discontinuation of FX Commentary Updates
Effective 12 November 2025 , CF&E Proprietary Trading will discontinue updates to our FX Market Commentary section, except for Quarterly Insights that will continue to be shared. We would like to take this opportunity to extend our sincere appreciation to all our readers and followers who have supported and engaged with our insights over the past years. Your continued interest and feedback have been invaluable to us. While regular FX commentary will cease, CF&E Proprietary
Eddie SMH
Nov 11
AUD/USD climbs to four-day highs around 0.6540
In quite an auspicious start to the new trading week, AUD/USD adds to Friday’s advance and clinches new multi-day highs around 0.6540, flirting at the same time with its temporary 100-day SMA. Moving forward, market participants are expected to closely follow the release of the Australian jobs report later in the week. AUD/USD Technical Overview AUD/USD picks up fresh upside impulse, although its extension and duration remain to be seen. The continuation of the current bo
James Lee
Nov 11
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds above 153.00 as buyers stepped in
The USD/JPY stages a recovery on Friday with buyers claiming 153.00, an indication that the uptrend might resume in the short term. The 100-pip or 0.68% Thursday’s loss was offset by traders buying the US Dollar due to its close correlation with the US 10-year Treasury note yield, which was steady during the trading day. USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook The USD/JPY technical picture shows that buyers regained momentum at around 153.00 with the next support level s
Yeonhyun Park
Nov 10
AUD/USD risks extra losses near term
AUD/USD rapidly leaves behind Wednesday’s uptick and refocuses on the downside, breaking below the 0.6500 support zone once again on Thursday. The daily downtick exposes the pair to a potential challenge of its critical 200-day SMA near 0.6450 sooner rather than later. AUD/USD Technical Overview The near-term outlook for AUD/USD now looks deteriorated, paving the way for further losses, while a challenge to the key 200-day SMA just below 0.6450 returning to the radar. So,
James Lee
Nov 7
EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.1500 after US data
EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.1500 in the American session on Wednesday. The US Dollar benefits from upbeat ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data for October, not allowing the pair to stage a rebound. EUR/USD Technical Overview In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is currently trading at around 1.1492, little changed on a daily basis. A bearish 20 SMA slides below the longer ones, and currently provides resistance at around 1.1511, suggesting sellers r
James Lee
Nov 6
AUD/USD: Sellers retarget the 200-day SMA
The intense sell-off in the risk-associated universe weighs heavily on the Aussie Dollar on Tuesday, sending AUD/USD to the 0.6480 area, or two-week lows, against the backdrop of a firmer Greenback. Meanwhile, the RBA’s hawkish hold earlier on Tuesday remains unable to lend some legs to the AUD so far. AUD/USD Technical Overview The Aussie Dollar remained on the back foot in the area of two-week lows, largely in response to dynamics around the US Dollar, while the hawkish h
James Lee
Nov 5
EUR/USD: Door open to extra losses
EUR/USD is on the back foot for a fourth straight day, kicking off the week on a weak note as it hovers near the key 1.1500 support area. The pair remains under pressure amid the dollar’s sharp recovery, with traders still assessing Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, investors continue to scale back expectations of a Fed rate cut by year-end, adding further support to the buck. EUR/USD Technical Overview The EUR/USD’s near-term outlook continues to deteriorate. The loss o
James Lee
Nov 4
USD/JPY Price Forecast: Uptrend shows fatigue as RSI divergence hints at short-term pullback
The Japanese Yen (JPY) steadies against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with USD/JPY pausing its two-day winning streak despite the Greenback’s broader strength, as renewed verbal warnings from Japanese officials revive intervention concerns. Japan’s new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is “closely monitoring FX with a high sense of urgency,” a remark that offered the Yen some intraday support after the pair touched fresh multi-month highs on Thursday.
Yeonhyun Park
Nov 3
Gold grinds north of $4,000 despite broad US Dollar strength
Gold is finding some footing on Thursday, orbiting around the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce and reversing four consecutive daily pullbacks. The US-China trade truce and the solid tone in the US Dollar seem to be limiting the precious metal’s upside potential. XAU/USD Technical Overview In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is currently trading at around $4,002, holding on to solid intraday gains. A bearish 20 SMA slides south at $3,973, sitting just above the 200 SMA, and both are
James Lee
Oct 31
AUD/USD: A test of the YTD peak should not be ruled out
The late and strong rebound in the US Dollar prevents AUD/USD from extending its positive streak on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, the Aussie had met support in the firmer-than-expected inflation data in Australia and hopes of a favourable outcome from the US-China trade discussions. AUD/USD Technical Overview The firmer-than-expected inflation prints in Australia have lent support to the view that the RBA will refrain from lowering its OCR next week, further underpinning t
James Lee
Oct 30
EUR/USD: The Fed will put the recovery to the test
EUR/USD clinches its fifth day in a row with gains, surpassing its transitory 100-day SMA in the 1.1660-1.1670 band amid a modest pullback in the Greenback and steady hopes of a US-China trade agreement. On Wednesday, the Fed is widely anticipated to trim its FFTR by 25 bps. EUR/USD Technical Overview EUR/USD keeps its gradual recovery unabated so far, approaching the key 1.1700 hurdle. Further up emerges the weekly peak at 1.1728 (October 17), followed by the October cei
James Lee
Oct 29
AUD/USD now retargets 0.6600 and beyond
AUD/USD rapidly leaves behind Friday’s slight decline and advances markedly well past the 0.6500 barrier on Monday. The Aussie’s uptick comes on the back of a decent pullback in the US Dollar as investors remain hopeful of a US-China trade deal. AUD/USD Technical Overview Further gains in AUD/USD remain on the cards as long as it trades above its critical 200-day SMA near 0.6430. If the recovery gathers serious traction, the spot could be looking at a potential challenge
James Lee
Oct 28
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pound Sterling sellers return; focus shifts to Fed
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faced rejection once again on its way to the 1.3500 level when compared with the US Dollar (USD), sending GBP/USD back toward the 1.3300 mark. The pair felt the heat of the USD resurgence as a safe-haven asset, while increased dovish bets surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate outlook added to its downside. Growing geopolitical and trade tensions dented risk appetite at the start of the week, lifting the haven demand for the Greenba
Yeonhyun Park
Oct 27
AUD/USD faces further consolidation
AUD/USD picks up renewed upside impulse and surpasses the 0.6500 barrier ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The Aussie’s daily recovery comes despite further gains in the Greenback and easing tensions on the trade front. Moving forward, the advanced gauges of business activity will be the salient event in Oz on Friday. AUD/USD Technical Overview For the time being, the consolidative atmosphere around AUD/USD remains unchanged. In fact, although the crucial 200-day SMA at
James Lee
Oct 24
Gold at risk of piercing the $4,000 threshold
Gold remains under pressure on Wednesday, testing the vicinity of the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce as rising US Treasury yields, easing US–China trade tensions, and a bout of profit-taking keep buyers on the sidelines. XAU/USD Technical Overview From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD pair is at risk of falling further, particularly if the $4,000 threshold gives up. The daily chart shows that the pair bounced from a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 10
James Lee
Oct 23
AUD/USD risks a drop to 0.6440
AUD/USD trades on a negative foot on Tuesday, reversing two daily advances in a row and returning to the sub-0.6500 zone on the back of the continuation of the strong sentiment around the US Dollar. Easing tensions on the US-China trade front, in the meantime, failed to underpin the recent rebound in the Aussie. AUD/USD Technical Overview So far, extra gains in AUD/USD appear limited by the provisional 100-day and 55-day SMAs at 0.6533 and 0.6547, respectively. Once this
James Lee
Oct 22
EUR/USD opens the door to some consolidation
EUR/USD finds its difficult to reverse Friday’s losses amid the tepid advance in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, investors continue to assess the ongoing US-China trade effervescence and the likelihood of a dovish Fed at its meeting next week. EUR/USD Technical Overview EUR/USD’s price action looks unconvincing and unclear. In case the ongoing recovery picks up a more serious pace, the pair should retarget the October peak at 1.1778 (October 1), seconded by the 2025 high of 1.
James Lee
Oct 21
USD/JPY strengthens as Trump’s softer stance on China boosts US Dollar demand
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with USD/JPY rebounding after slipping to two-week lows earlier in the Asian session. The recovery comes as the Greenback regains footing after President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric on China, helping stabilize risk sentiment and lift the Dollar across the board. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 150.38, erasing intraday losses after bouncing off a session low near 149.38. The move r
Yeonhyun Park
Oct 20
AUD/USD: Extra weakness likely below 0.6425
AUD/USD resumes its decline and returns to the sub-0.6500 region on Thursday. The move lower in the pair comes despite the US Dollar accelerates its weakness to multi-day lows amid steady bets on a couple of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. AUD/USD Technical Overview If sellers remain in control, AUD/USD might put its key 200-day SMA near 0.6430 to the test sooner rather than later. That said, the loss of that region could prompt spot to revisit the August troug
James Lee
Oct 17
AUD/USD keeps the constructive outlook above the 200-day SMA
AUD/USD reverses Tuesday’s marked decline and advances past the 0.6500 barrier on Wednesday. The recovery in the Aussie comes on the back of further selling pressure hurting the US Dollar and the generalised recovery in the risk-linked galaxy. Next of note around AUD will be the release of the jobs report in Oz on Thursday AUD/USD Technical Overview AUD/USD faces a strong contention zone around its critical 200-day SMA near 0.6420. Indeed, in case sellers push harder and
James Lee
Oct 16
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