AUD/USD retargets 0.6500, Dollar melts post-NFP

AUD/USD bounces strongly to the upper-0.6400s after July’s US NFP. The US Dollar loses its shine as traders see a potential Fed rate cut in September. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in Australia remained strong in July.

AUD/USD Technical Overview

Transitory resistance emerges at the 55-day SMA at 0.6504, ahead of the 2025 peak at 0.6625 (July 24) and the November 2024 high at 0.6687 (November 4).

On the downside, initial support comes at the weekly floor at 0.6418 (August 1), prior to the critical 200-day SMA at 0.6391.

Fundamental Overview

The now widespread recovery in the risk-linked galaxy lends extra oxygen to the Australian Dollar (AUD), sending AUD/USD back to the proximity of the key resistance area around 0.6500 on Friday.

AUD/USD meets support near 0.6400

The pair advances to two-day highs within the 0.6480-0.6490 range, marking a positive end to the week, as it gains strong momentum following the disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report for July (+73K jobs).

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) continues to lose momentum as market participants assess the additional cooling of the US labour market, potentially leading to a rate cut by the Fed after the summer break.

Locally, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3 in July, while Producer Prices rose by 0.7% QoQ in Q2 and 3.4% from a year earlier.