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Gold falls as CPI data dampens talk of oversized U.S. rate cut

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the dollar and Treasury yields firmed after U.S. inflation data prompted investors to scale back expectations of an oversized rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

 

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,513.19 per ounce.

U.S. gold futures settled mostly unchanged at $2,542.40.

 

U.S. consumer prices rose only slightly in August, but underlying inflation showed some stickiness, which could dissuade the Fed from delivering a half-point interest rate cut next week.

 

Inflation is still here. The consumer is still feeling it. If they do a half, it signals they’re throwing in the towel here... a quarter point is something that they’re almost forced into doing here at this point.

 

Markets are currently pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point U.S. rate cut, compared to 71% before the data.

 

The Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining policy meetings in 2024, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll that found only nine out of 101 expected a half-percentage-point cut next week.

 

“The uptick in core CPI has more or less cemented at 25 bps cut next week ... A new all-time high (for gold prices) may have to wait just a little longer,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

 

Markets will now look towards the U.S. producer price index reading and initial jobless claims due on Thursday.

 

Among other metals, spot silver was up 0.7% at $28.57 per ounce, platinum rose 1.5% to $951.97 and palladium firmed 5% to $1,013.25.

 

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